Summary
There is no credible public evidence suggesting China plans to shoot down a SpaceX Falcon 9 en route to the Moon. Given international norms, escalation risk, and the visibility of such actions, the practical likelihood is extremely low (near-zero).
Why the likelihood is extremely low
- Severe escalation consequences: Intentionally attacking a U.S.-linked commercial spacecraft would be an extraordinary provocation and could be treated as a major hostile act, inviting broad political and economic retaliation.
- International norms & legal frameworks: Space activity operates under strong norms against destructive interference. Even when competition is intense, overt kinetic attacks against spacecraft are widely viewed as destabilizing.
- Capability ≠intent: Some nations, including China, have demonstrated anti-satellite capabilities in the past, but possession of capability does not imply plans to target a specific civilian/commercial mission.
- High detectability: Launches and space objects are tracked by multiple national and commercial space surveillance systems. Any overt attempt to destroy a rocket or payload would be difficult to hide and would produce an immediate, traceable crisis.
What would change this assessment?
The assessment would change only if there were concrete, verifiable indicators—e.g., explicit official threats, credible intelligence reporting, or observable preparations consistent with an imminent attack. In the absence of such signals, speculation tends to overestimate rare, high-consequence actions.
Important note: This is a general risk judgment, not an intelligence product. It reflects publicly knowable factors and the lack of credible public indicators of intent.